Heating Oil
Price Chart
At a Glance
Heating oil (No. 2 fuel oil) is a refined petroleum product used primarily for residential and commercial heating in the Northeastern United States and Europe. Its price closely tracks crude oil but is also influenced by refinery capacity, seasonal demand, and distillate inventory levels. The crack spread — the difference between heating oil and crude oil prices — reflects refining margins and is a key indicator of supply tightness in refined products.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Crude Oil Prices
neutralAs a refined product, heating oil prices are fundamentally linked to crude oil — accounting for ~60% of the retail price.
Winter Weather
neutralCold snaps in the US Northeast drive heating demand spikes. Warmer-than-normal winters reduce demand.
Refinery Margins
bullishThe crack spread reflects refining profitability. Tight refining capacity or outages widen margins and lift heating oil prices.
Distillate Inventories
bullishUS distillate stocks below the 5-year average signal tightness. Current levels are slightly below average.
Diesel Competition
neutralHeating oil and diesel are essentially the same product — trucking demand competes with heating demand for supply.
Clean Energy Transition
bearishHeat pump adoption and natural gas conversions are slowly reducing structural heating oil demand in the Northeast.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.50% | |
| 2024 | -5.80% | |
| 2023 | -12.40% | |
| 2022 | +18.30% | |
| 2021 | +52.80% | |
| 2020 | -24.10% | |
| 2019 | +19.60% | |
| 2018 | -18.70% | |
| 2017 | +15.20% | |
| 2016 | +28.40% |