Crude Oil (Brent/WTI)
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Price Chart
At a Glance
Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the US benchmark for light sweet crude, traded on NYMEX, while Brent is the global benchmark, traded on ICE. Prices are driven by OPEC+ production policy, global demand growth (particularly from China and India), US shale output, strategic petroleum reserve levels, and geopolitical risk in key producing regions. The Brent-WTI spread reflects logistical and quality differentials between the two benchmarks.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
OPEC+ Policy
neutralProduction cuts or increases from the OPEC+ alliance directly control ~40% of global supply, making quota decisions the single largest price driver.
China Demand
bearishChina accounts for ~16% of global oil demand. Economic slowdown or stimulus in China materially shifts the demand outlook.
US Shale Production
bearishUS shale producers can ramp output quickly, acting as a swing supplier. Current production near record highs at 13.4 mb/d.
Geopolitical Risk
bullishTensions in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and sanctions on Iran/Venezuela create supply disruption risk premiums.
Dollar Strength
bearishOil is globally priced in USD — a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-USD buyers, dampening demand.
Energy Transition
bearishLong-term demand destruction from EVs and renewables is gradual but accelerating, particularly in developed markets.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -3.10% | |
| 2024 | -3.00% | |
| 2023 | -10.70% | |
| 2022 | +6.70% | |
| 2021 | +55.00% | |
| 2020 | -20.50% | |
| 2019 | +34.50% | |
| 2018 | -24.80% | |
| 2017 | +12.50% | |
| 2016 | +45.00% |
Related Commodities
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