Wheat
Price Chart
At a Glance
Wheat is a global staple grain and one of the most traded agricultural commodities. Prices are driven by weather conditions in key growing regions (US, EU, Russia, Australia), Black Sea export logistics, and government stockpiling policies. The USDA's monthly WASDE report is the most important data release, providing supply/demand estimates that move markets. Winter and spring wheat varieties have distinct planting and harvest cycles.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Black Sea Geopolitics
bullishRussia and Ukraine together account for ~30% of global wheat exports. Conflict disrupts Black Sea shipping routes.
Weather / Drought
neutralWheat yields are highly weather-dependent. Drought in the US Southern Plains or Australia can cut production sharply.
USDA WASDE Reports
neutralMonthly supply/demand estimates from USDA are the most market-moving data releases for grain prices.
Russian Export Quotas
bullishRussia periodically restricts wheat exports to protect domestic food prices, tightening global supply.
Dollar Strength
bearishUS wheat is priced in USD — a strong dollar makes US exports less competitive vs. Black Sea and EU wheat.
Global Stockpiles
bearishStocks-to-use ratio at 33.5% is comfortable, providing a buffer against supply shocks.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -5.20% | |
| 2024 | -10.80% | |
| 2023 | -20.60% | |
| 2022 | +3.00% | |
| 2021 | +20.40% | |
| 2020 | +14.60% | |
| 2019 | +11.00% | |
| 2018 | +17.80% | |
| 2017 | -2.50% | |
| 2016 | -13.20% |