Palladium
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Price Chart
At a Glance
Palladium is a platinum-group metal primarily used in catalytic converters for gasoline-powered vehicles. Russia (~40%) and South Africa (~35%) dominate supply, creating significant geopolitical risk. Palladium prices surged from ~$500 in 2016 to over $3,000 in 2022 due to supply deficits before correcting sharply as automakers accelerated substitution toward platinum and EV adoption reduced catalytic converter demand.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Gasoline Vehicle Production
neutral~80% of palladium goes to gasoline auto catalysts. Global auto production directly drives demand.
Platinum Substitution
bearishAutomakers are actively replacing palladium with cheaper platinum in catalytic converters, a structural demand headwind.
EV Disruption
bearishBattery EVs don't need catalytic converters. Rising EV market share erodes palladium demand over time.
Russia Supply Risk
bullish~40% of supply comes from Russia (Nornickel). Sanctions or export restrictions could tighten supply sharply.
Recycling Growth
neutralScrappage of older vehicles provides growing recycled palladium supply, partially offsetting mine supply constraints.
Market Surplus
bearishThe palladium market shifted from deficit to surplus in 2023 as substitution and EV adoption reduced demand.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -4.20% | |
| 2024 | -18.00% | |
| 2023 | -38.50% | |
| 2022 | -4.80% | |
| 2021 | -22.20% | |
| 2020 | +25.90% | |
| 2019 | +54.20% | |
| 2018 | +18.60% | |
| 2017 | +56.20% | |
| 2016 | +21.30% |
Related Commodities
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