Nickel
Price Chart
At a Glance
Nickel is a key input for stainless steel (~65% of demand) and increasingly for EV battery cathodes (NMC/NCA chemistries). Indonesia dominates global supply with ~50% of mine output and rapidly expanding smelting capacity. The nickel market bifurcated into Class 1 (battery-grade) and Class 2 (stainless steel) segments, with Indonesian NPI/HPAL expansion disrupting traditional pricing dynamics.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Indonesian Supply Surge
bearishIndonesia's NPI and HPAL capacity expansion has flooded the market with supply, pressuring prices lower.
EV Battery Demand
bullishHigh-nickel cathode batteries (NMC 811) are gaining share in EVs, increasing Class 1 nickel demand.
Stainless Steel Cycle
neutralChina's stainless steel production drives ~65% of nickel demand. Construction and appliance sectors are key.
LFP Competition
bearishLFP batteries (no nickel) are gaining market share in China, potentially capping nickel battery demand growth.
ESG Concerns
neutralIndonesian laterite processing has high carbon intensity and deforestation risks, inviting regulatory scrutiny.
LME Market Reform
neutralAfter the 2022 short squeeze, LME credibility issues have shifted some trading to CME and Shanghai.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -2.80% | |
| 2024 | -6.10% | |
| 2023 | -45.00% | |
| 2022 | +43.00% | |
| 2021 | +25.00% | |
| 2020 | +18.50% | |
| 2019 | +31.20% | |
| 2018 | -12.30% | |
| 2017 | +28.50% | |
| 2016 | +15.80% |