Cotton
Price Chart
At a Glance
Cotton is the world's most important natural fiber, used primarily in textiles and apparel. The US, India, China, and Brazil are the largest producers. Prices are driven by global textile demand (linked to consumer spending), competition from synthetic fibers (polyester), weather in key growing regions, and China's strategic reserve management. The USDA's monthly supply/demand reports and the ICE Cotton No. 2 contract are the primary price benchmarks.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
China Textile Demand
neutralChina is the largest cotton consumer for its textile mills. Economic health and export orders drive volumes.
Polyester Competition
bearishSynthetic fibers now account for >50% of global fiber use. Low oil prices make polyester cheaper vs. cotton.
US Crop Weather
neutralTexas produces ~40% of US cotton. Drought in West Texas can sharply reduce the US crop.
India Monsoon
neutralIndia's cotton crop is rain-fed and highly dependent on monsoon quality. Poor monsoons cut yields.
China Reserve Policy
neutralChina's strategic cotton reserve (~40M bales) can be released to cap domestic prices or accumulated to support farmers.
Sustainability Trends
bullishDemand for organic and sustainably grown cotton is growing, commanding premiums over conventional.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +2.80% | |
| 2024 | -14.20% | |
| 2023 | -2.50% | |
| 2022 | -17.50% | |
| 2021 | +45.00% | |
| 2020 | +14.50% | |
| 2019 | -3.80% | |
| 2018 | -7.50% | |
| 2017 | +12.50% | |
| 2016 | +11.80% |