Coffee
Price Chart
At a Glance
Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages globally and the second most traded commodity by value after crude oil. The Arabica (Coffee C) contract on ICE is the global benchmark. Brazil produces ~35% of global coffee, making Brazilian weather the single most important price driver. Vietnam is the largest Robusta producer. Climate change is threatening traditional growing regions, pushing production to higher altitudes.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Brazil Weather
bullishFrost risk in June-August and drought during flowering (Sep-Nov) are the primary supply risks. Brazil's biennial cycle also affects output.
Certified Stocks
bullishICE certified warehouse stocks at multi-decade lows signal physical tightness in the Arabica market.
Climate Change
bullishRising temperatures are reducing suitable growing area in Brazil and Central America, threatening long-term supply.
Specialty Demand Growth
bullishThird-wave coffee culture is driving premiums for high-quality Arabica, supporting prices.
Vietnam Robusta Supply
bearishVietnam's Robusta crop can offset Arabica tightness for blends and instant coffee.
Currency Effects
bearishA weak Brazilian Real incentivizes Brazilian farmers to sell more, increasing USD-denominated supply.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +18.50% | |
| 2024 | +70.00% | |
| 2023 | -3.50% | |
| 2022 | -25.40% | |
| 2021 | +76.30% | |
| 2020 | -0.40% | |
| 2019 | +27.10% | |
| 2018 | -21.30% | |
| 2017 | -4.80% | |
| 2016 | +8.50% |