Sugar
Price Chart
At a Glance
Sugar (No. 11) is a globally traded soft commodity used as a sweetener and, importantly, as a feedstock for ethanol production in Brazil. The sugar/ethanol production mix at Brazilian mills is a unique price driver — when ethanol prices are high, mills divert cane away from sugar, tightening supply. India and Thailand are major swing exporters whose government subsidy and stockpiling policies significantly affect global balances.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
Brazil Sugar/Ethanol Mix
bullishBrazilian mills choose between sugar and ethanol production based on relative prices. High ethanol demand reduces sugar output.
India Export Policy
neutralIndia alternates between surplus exporter and deficit importer based on monsoon quality and government subsidies.
Oil Prices / Ethanol
bullishHigher oil prices make Brazilian ethanol more valuable, incentivizing mills to divert sugarcane away from sugar production.
El Niño / Weather
neutralEl Niño events can cause drought in Asia (reducing Indian/Thai output) and excess rain in Brazil (disrupting harvest).
Health Trends
bearishGrowing health consciousness and sugar taxes in developed markets are slowly reducing per-capita sugar consumption.
Thai Production
neutralThailand is the #2 exporter — its production swings between 8-14M tonnes based on cane yields and drought.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +8.20% | |
| 2024 | -18.50% | |
| 2023 | -2.80% | |
| 2022 | +5.60% | |
| 2021 | +21.80% | |
| 2020 | +13.50% | |
| 2019 | +11.00% | |
| 2018 | -22.20% | |
| 2017 | -28.50% | |
| 2016 | +27.40% |