Cocoa
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Price Chart
At a Glance
Cocoa is the essential ingredient in chocolate, with global demand driven by confectionery, beverages, and cosmetics. Supply is heavily concentrated in West Africa — Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana account for ~60% of production. Prices have surged to record highs due to consecutive poor harvests, aging tree stock, and disease (swollen shoot virus). The market faces a structural supply deficit as production has failed to keep pace with growing demand from emerging market chocolate consumption.
Supply & Demand
Supply
Demand
Key Drivers
West Africa Crop Disease
bullishSwollen shoot virus and black pod disease are devastating aging tree stocks in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
Structural Deficit
bullishGlobal cocoa demand has exceeded production for multiple years, drawing down stocks to concerning levels.
Aging Trees
bullishMany West African cocoa trees are 25+ years old with declining yields. Replanting takes 3-5 years to produce.
Demand Elasticity
bearishAt record high prices, chocolate manufacturers are reformulating products to use less cocoa, providing some demand relief.
Weather (Harmattan)
neutralThe dry Harmattan wind from the Sahara can damage cocoa pods. Excessive rain can also promote fungal disease.
Smallholder Economics
bullishLow farm-gate prices relative to input costs have discouraged investment in new plantings and crop maintenance.
Historical Returns
| Year | Annual Return | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +28.50% | |
| 2024 | +177.00% | |
| 2023 | +61.50% | |
| 2022 | -6.50% | |
| 2021 | -3.20% | |
| 2020 | +4.50% | |
| 2019 | +11.00% | |
| 2018 | +28.20% | |
| 2017 | -1.50% | |
| 2016 | -33.80% |
Related Commodities
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